August 11, 2017

Watch DJT - Aug 11


Ah 1960s Batman. Is there any end to your hilarity? The answer, of course, is no. 😂

So this is the rally to watch like a Batman ... erm, like a hawk. The Dow Transportation index is surging up.

If it breaks a new all time high, buy buy buy ☺

I suspect we will see some profit taking in this scenario, which will make a nice buying opportunity. I'm talking about buying the S&P500, which closely follows the direction and primary trend of the Dow Industrials.

I'm looking up to 2600 as the target for NYSE:SPY for the end of the year.

Unless something drastically changes, its onward and upward no matter what any TV pundit or newsletter says.

August 7, 2017

Financial News & The Fear Factor


Once again, the financial news is more interested in making you scared, often in order to make you buy their services or watch their programs than giving you real advice.

https://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2017/08/02/dow-discord-as-djia-flirts-with-22000-transports-send-an-ominous-signal/

https://etfdailynews.com/2017/08/05/transport-divergence-a-concern-for-dow-jones-industrial-average/

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/stocks-are-climbing-ever-higher-be-worried/

So, let's look at the facts again and breathe.

  1. The Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to hit all time highs.
  2. The Dow Jones Transportation Index hit an all time high, then retreated to an intermediate low.
This in itself is not a concern. However, if the Transportation index fails to make a new all time high on it's next extended rally (remember: we will only know slightly in retrospect as we are looking at the WEEKLY charts, not the daily charts), then and only then will it be time to start getting concerned.

Until then, sleep well! Like, a solid 7 or 8 hours a night. Seriously. It'll be good for you!

August 2, 2017

Watch the Transportations

The Dow is making new all time highs. After doing the same, the transportations retreated.

Now watch to see if the transportations bounce back from the recent sell off to reach new all time high themselves. If they do not, it is a sign to start looking for ways to short the market in a timely way.

In my case, it will mean take profits and/or shore up cash majorly in anticipation of a sigificant, impending correction.

However, if the transportations make new all time highs again, then it's bul market business as usual.

July 14, 2017

The Stock Market Boogeymen

Here are the problems with investment newsletters.

#1 If they are too early on a call, they aren't early; they're wrong.

Casey Research is one such newsletter organization that is way too early on their calls for a major market catastrophe. The numbers just don't add up yet.

If you had been following their advice and got out of a chunk of your broad stock market positions a couple of years ago, you would have missed an eyes-closed easy 40-50% increase if you had just stuck with something like NYSE:SPY.

#2 all of their publications that aren't paid are designed to be advertisements for their paid material.

#3 they generally like to sell you worst case scenarios, because "set it and forget it until something changes in a year or more" just isn't very sexy. But as I've learned, it's been hands down the most lucrative strategy for the past 5+ years. One day it WILL change, but until the numbers add up, set it and forget it is simply the way to go.

Now that we are making new all time highs, the question is: how much should I deploy if I have spare cash sitting around?

My gut says to keep minimal cash and buy as large a chunk as you can muster right now before this thing takes off on us again (and I believe it will). Despite the fact that stocks are overvalued, bonds still aren't giving any yield.

Stocks are a lot like housing right now. We're in "seriously?" Territory. It's the wall of worry. Its been a very very long and high wall, which we will not be done climbing until the economy significantly improves for the "bottom 98%".