It's true.
What happens in Europe can and will affect North America, just like what happens in North American can and does affect Europe.
During the financial Crisis of 2008, Iceland's three major privately owned banks went bankrupt because of exposure to the US housing market via investment products that had bad subprime loans packaged in with other assets.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E2%80%932011_Icelandic_financial_crisis
So here's the simple truth ...
Showing posts with label Debt Crisis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Debt Crisis. Show all posts
December 2, 2016
Not There Yet - Dec 2, 2016
I am still waiting for the transportation index ....
9199.65
One of the interesting things about Dow's theory of the stock markets is his postulation that current prices reflect all current knowledge. I think, therefore, that it's telling when the Dow has been surging to new all time highs, reflecting an assumed increase in future consumer confidence through increased production and warehouse sales.
But the transportations are stalling.
March 31, 2013
Survive The Coming Slow-Burn Crash
By Money Morning Editorial
www.moneymorning.com
The money pundits in the press and on TV are gleefully reporting that the blue chips are up over 13,000. They seem to be saying, "Happy days are here again!"
But they're completely wrong.
The seemingly miraculous climb in the Dow - from 6,443.27 after the market crash in 2008... to over 13,000 today- didn't happen all on its own. It has taken trillions of dollars of money from the U.S. Federal Reserve to boost these share prices back near their 2007 highs.
That means this run of market growth isn't related to real growth. The Dow you're invested in is dangerously inflated. The value of the REAL Dow is much lower than what you see every day.
In fact...the REAL Dow is at 8,800 right now - and when this market bubble pops, that's where the Dow will go. The real explosion will happen after January 1,2013. That's when the unavoidable "fiscal cliff" of tax hikes and spending cuts will begin to inflict massive damage on the economy.
If you don't protect your investments now, you could see more than half of your money wiped out by the coming financial crisis and resulting market collapse. In a minute I'm going to give you specific and immediate steps you can take to guard your money. But first, let me show you exactly what is happening.
EDITOR'S NOTE: How big a problem is it? A group of prominent economists believes a devastating economic collapse is not only coming... it's a mathematical certainty. The evidence is startling... and undeniable. See it here.
We can pinpoint the precise moment this "decoupling" began - February 23rd, 1995, at the Federal Reserve's bi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress. That's when Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan first suggested the loose monetary policy that has stolen the American dream from so many investors. This abrupt reversal of policy spurred an immediate rally in stocks. And overnight, an unthinkable precedent was put into effect.
The Fed's policies could now be used to pump up the market - not strictly as an emergency measure in response to a national crisis, but just because. This opened the floodgates to Quantitative Easing, money printing, interest rate manipulation, and other "stimulus" shenanigans that have become The Fed's MO over the last 17 years. The result: An artificially engineered "Franken-bubble" unlike any in U.S. history.

Remember what happened after 9/11? Greenspan cut interest rates to stimulate the economy, creating the housing bubble. That caused the "crash" of 2008 - which as you can see, was really just the market reverting to its fundamental economic value. However, before the Fed started manipulating the market in February of 1995, the Dow and S&P 500 accurately reflected America's economic growth.
The following facts plainly show this.
That's almost dead-on the 3,793 reading the Dow posted at the close of 1994. However, since February of 1995, America's average yearly inflation rate has been 2.48%. And the average annual GDP growth has been only 2.38%. That's a combined 4.86%. This means that if the historic relationship between GDP growth, inflation and the stock market had held true after 1994, the Dow would've closed the second quarter of 2012 at 8,808.
A recent report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York proves that these calculations are accurate. According to that July 11 report, as much as 50% of the S&P 500's gains since 1994 are due to market reactions to Fed monetary policy announcements.
ONE: The Fed's "market cocaine" is losing its pop - The effectiveness of Quantitative Easing and other stimulus at pumping up equities is diminishing fast.
For instance, QE2 expended 50% more stimulus cash for every point it raised the Dow, compared to QE1. And The Fed's "Operation Twist" is costing even more per market point than did QE2. This latest stimulus attempt from the Fed could do even less. And those who get caught in it could have a big price to pay.
TWO: The economy won't "re-couple" with stocks until 2021 - Eventually, today's hyper-inflated stock market will reconcile with the rock-hard realities of the U.S. economy. It's simple economic physics.
So, let's say that for the foreseeable future, the U.S. economy posts a modest 2% annual growth, and 3% annual inflation. Using the same formula that held true from 1947 until the market's 1995 "decoupling" from the economy, it'll be nine years before the real economic fundamentals catch up to where the market is today! Here's what these two things mean.
For at least nine more years, we can expect a "comatose" stock market - flat overall, with occasional spikes and drops of volatility. And that's only if the U.S. economy grows at 2% annually. Right now, there's very little evidence to suggest that the U.S. economy is capable of growing at a 2% annual rate for the foreseeable future.
Morgan Stanley just revised downward its forecast for America's GDP growth in 2013 - to 1.75%, from this year's 2% growth estimate. MS also issued a warning that because of the unavoidable "fiscal cliff" of tax hikes and spending cuts, the U.S. GDP could get a lot lower after 2013.
But even this gloomy forecast could be extremely optimistic. So the best case scenario: The Dow takes nine years to catch up to its real value, meaning little to no growth in the market. The worst: The Dow collapses to its real value - and takes 50% of your money with it.
1: Precious Metals
While QE1 and QE2 clearly did little to strengthen the U.S. economy, their effects on the markets were undeniable.
Commodities soared.
Since March 2009, gold is up 97%, silver is up 162%, and the Continuous Commodity Index (CCI) is up 55%. Thanks to the Fed, this trend has just been rebooted. That means you should maintain exposure to inflation-sensitive assets, like precious metal favorites silver and gold. They will continue to do as well or better than they did during QE1 and QE2. The only difference with this round of QE is that it's going to be much bigger and go on much, much longer. So as a result of the Fed doubling its balance sheet over two years, Bank of America says they expect massive inflation, enough to see gold double as well. They foresee gold to $3,350 an ounce. The outcome is so obvious now even a major bank can see it coming.
2: Oil
Just like precious metals, oil prices have been on a tear since 2009, up 122%. While oil's price rise cooled this year, new forecasts show that will not be the case for 2013. Bank of America expects inflation to double oil prices, sending them to $190 a barrel. But there's a lot more to oil's price rise than inflation.
Money Morning oil expert Dr. Kent Moors outlined three key reasons other than inflation that point to higher oil prices in 2013 and beyond:
Dividends represent the biggest source of returns you can get from stock investing. Now, to a lot of people, dividends may not sound very sexy. That's because they don't realize that 90% of the U.S. stock market's returns over the last century have come not from share appreciation, but from the cash that companies pay their shareholders.

When you think about this, it's like having the thousands of people employed by these dividend-paying companies all working to make you rich. But you can't just go for high yield. As we enter a period of slow economic growth, you have to find companies that not only have a long history of dividend increases, but can survive a U.S. recession.
That's why Emerson Electric (NYSE:EMR) and Procter and Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG)rank among our favorite dividend stocks. They have more than half of their business overseas. Both have raised their dividends every year since 1957 and 1954, respectively. Emerson yields 3.2% and P&G 3.6%.
Another top dividend stock is OmegaHealthcareInvestors(NYSE: OHI). OHI is a real estate investment trust (REIT) andthe company's leases have an inflation-protection clause built in, so your nominal yield - in this case 7% - is even better than it looks since the dividends tend to rise with inflation.
4: Farmland
Legendary Wall Street trader Jim Rogers recently offered this unconventional advice: If you want to get rich, you should be investing in farmland. "It's the farmers, the producers, who are going to be in the captain's seat when the prices go through the roof," he toldThe Australian Financial Review.
Over the last 100 years farmland, based on income and capital appreciation, has consistently delivered positive returns -- with only three brief periods of negative returns (1930s, 1980s, and 2008). And as the saying goes, they just aren't making any more of it. So a severe imbalance is developing in the supply and demand of farmland. Farmland is also an opportunity to invest in an asset class not directly correlated to stocks and bonds, and one with significantly less volatility. Rogers believes investing in farmland is "in its third inning." In other words, there's still plenty of time to get in.
One way is to invest in agricultural futures through ETFs like the PowerShares DB Commodity Index (NYSEArca:DBC). The fund tracks an entire basket of agricultural commodities including corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, sugar, coffee, cattle and pigs.
There's also Adecoagro S.A. (NYSE:AGRO), a Luxembourg-based company that owns significant farmland holdings in South America. It owns nearly 500,000 acres of farmland, consisting of 23 farms in Argentina, 13 farms in Brazil, and one in Uruguay.
Canadian citizens can invest in Agcapita Farmland Investment Partnership, a farmland private equity fund, with significant holdings in Saskatchewan, Alberta and Manitoba. Jim Rogers is actually an advisor to the fund, currently open to retail investors for a minimum investment of $10,000.
Even worse, our debt is creating an incomprehensible threat that is quickly bearing down on all 313 million Americans.
To understand the truth about America's economic future, take a look at this gripping investigative documentary.
You owe it to yourself to learn what else the government is hiding from you.
Source: http://moneymorning.com/2012/11/15/dont-lose-half-your-savings-four-ways-to-survive-the-coming-crash/
www.moneymorning.com
The money pundits in the press and on TV are gleefully reporting that the blue chips are up over 13,000. They seem to be saying, "Happy days are here again!"
But they're completely wrong.
The seemingly miraculous climb in the Dow - from 6,443.27 after the market crash in 2008... to over 13,000 today- didn't happen all on its own. It has taken trillions of dollars of money from the U.S. Federal Reserve to boost these share prices back near their 2007 highs.
That means this run of market growth isn't related to real growth. The Dow you're invested in is dangerously inflated. The value of the REAL Dow is much lower than what you see every day.
In fact...the REAL Dow is at 8,800 right now - and when this market bubble pops, that's where the Dow will go. The real explosion will happen after January 1,2013. That's when the unavoidable "fiscal cliff" of tax hikes and spending cuts will begin to inflict massive damage on the economy.
If you don't protect your investments now, you could see more than half of your money wiped out by the coming financial crisis and resulting market collapse. In a minute I'm going to give you specific and immediate steps you can take to guard your money. But first, let me show you exactly what is happening.
The Real Value of the Dow
The reason the Dow's real value is a staggering 50% lower than where stocks are now trading stems from intervention by the U.S. government. You see, the U.S. government has intentionally decoupled the stock market from the economy. That is, the connection between the stock market and the U.S. economy has been erased. Obliterated. And that's a problem. A big problem.EDITOR'S NOTE: How big a problem is it? A group of prominent economists believes a devastating economic collapse is not only coming... it's a mathematical certainty. The evidence is startling... and undeniable. See it here.
We can pinpoint the precise moment this "decoupling" began - February 23rd, 1995, at the Federal Reserve's bi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress. That's when Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan first suggested the loose monetary policy that has stolen the American dream from so many investors. This abrupt reversal of policy spurred an immediate rally in stocks. And overnight, an unthinkable precedent was put into effect.
The Fed's policies could now be used to pump up the market - not strictly as an emergency measure in response to a national crisis, but just because. This opened the floodgates to Quantitative Easing, money printing, interest rate manipulation, and other "stimulus" shenanigans that have become The Fed's MO over the last 17 years. The result: An artificially engineered "Franken-bubble" unlike any in U.S. history.
Remember what happened after 9/11? Greenspan cut interest rates to stimulate the economy, creating the housing bubble. That caused the "crash" of 2008 - which as you can see, was really just the market reverting to its fundamental economic value. However, before the Fed started manipulating the market in February of 1995, the Dow and S&P 500 accurately reflected America's economic growth.
The following facts plainly show this.
Why the Dow Should Be at 8,800
Since 1947, U.S. GDP has grown by an average of 3.3% annually, with an average inflation rate of 3.4%. That's a combined 6.7%. At the end of '47, the Dow sat at 177.58. Multiply this by 6.7% - compounded annually through 1994 (47 years) - and you'll get 3,742.That's almost dead-on the 3,793 reading the Dow posted at the close of 1994. However, since February of 1995, America's average yearly inflation rate has been 2.48%. And the average annual GDP growth has been only 2.38%. That's a combined 4.86%. This means that if the historic relationship between GDP growth, inflation and the stock market had held true after 1994, the Dow would've closed the second quarter of 2012 at 8,808.
A recent report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York proves that these calculations are accurate. According to that July 11 report, as much as 50% of the S&P 500's gains since 1994 are due to market reactions to Fed monetary policy announcements.
What this Means for You
There are two critically important things you need to know if you want to actually make any money in the comatose, Franken-bubble market we're facing.ONE: The Fed's "market cocaine" is losing its pop - The effectiveness of Quantitative Easing and other stimulus at pumping up equities is diminishing fast.
For instance, QE2 expended 50% more stimulus cash for every point it raised the Dow, compared to QE1. And The Fed's "Operation Twist" is costing even more per market point than did QE2. This latest stimulus attempt from the Fed could do even less. And those who get caught in it could have a big price to pay.
TWO: The economy won't "re-couple" with stocks until 2021 - Eventually, today's hyper-inflated stock market will reconcile with the rock-hard realities of the U.S. economy. It's simple economic physics.
So, let's say that for the foreseeable future, the U.S. economy posts a modest 2% annual growth, and 3% annual inflation. Using the same formula that held true from 1947 until the market's 1995 "decoupling" from the economy, it'll be nine years before the real economic fundamentals catch up to where the market is today! Here's what these two things mean.
For at least nine more years, we can expect a "comatose" stock market - flat overall, with occasional spikes and drops of volatility. And that's only if the U.S. economy grows at 2% annually. Right now, there's very little evidence to suggest that the U.S. economy is capable of growing at a 2% annual rate for the foreseeable future.
Morgan Stanley just revised downward its forecast for America's GDP growth in 2013 - to 1.75%, from this year's 2% growth estimate. MS also issued a warning that because of the unavoidable "fiscal cliff" of tax hikes and spending cuts, the U.S. GDP could get a lot lower after 2013.
But even this gloomy forecast could be extremely optimistic. So the best case scenario: The Dow takes nine years to catch up to its real value, meaning little to no growth in the market. The worst: The Dow collapses to its real value - and takes 50% of your money with it.
Four Ways to Protect Your Money from the Dangerously Inflated Dow
Now that you know the real value of the Dow, would you trust your savings, your retirement, to this over-inflated market bubble? Here are assets that will let you not only hold on to your money but also turn a profit while the Dow corrects to its real value.1: Precious Metals
While QE1 and QE2 clearly did little to strengthen the U.S. economy, their effects on the markets were undeniable.
Commodities soared.
Since March 2009, gold is up 97%, silver is up 162%, and the Continuous Commodity Index (CCI) is up 55%. Thanks to the Fed, this trend has just been rebooted. That means you should maintain exposure to inflation-sensitive assets, like precious metal favorites silver and gold. They will continue to do as well or better than they did during QE1 and QE2. The only difference with this round of QE is that it's going to be much bigger and go on much, much longer. So as a result of the Fed doubling its balance sheet over two years, Bank of America says they expect massive inflation, enough to see gold double as well. They foresee gold to $3,350 an ounce. The outcome is so obvious now even a major bank can see it coming.
2: Oil
Just like precious metals, oil prices have been on a tear since 2009, up 122%. While oil's price rise cooled this year, new forecasts show that will not be the case for 2013. Bank of America expects inflation to double oil prices, sending them to $190 a barrel. But there's a lot more to oil's price rise than inflation.
Money Morning oil expert Dr. Kent Moors outlined three key reasons other than inflation that point to higher oil prices in 2013 and beyond:
- Demand continues to rise in those parts of the world most directly affecting price. Those areas are not North America or Western Europe, but are markets in which unconventional oil will not have an effect for some time.
- Oil production costs are rising. The cost of extracting a barrel of unconventional oil extracted will increase the price of the crude. Energy research experts Bernstein Research said that the average marginalcost of oilaround the world today is $92 a barrel, and is set to rise because it is more expensive to lift, process, refine, and distribute these new sources of crude oil.
- Oil prices are affected by the regionalization of supply for both crude and refined oil products. As we move toward 2015 and beyond, the demand curve will dictate pricing premiums for regions where imbalances of supply are present.
Dividends represent the biggest source of returns you can get from stock investing. Now, to a lot of people, dividends may not sound very sexy. That's because they don't realize that 90% of the U.S. stock market's returns over the last century have come not from share appreciation, but from the cash that companies pay their shareholders.
When you think about this, it's like having the thousands of people employed by these dividend-paying companies all working to make you rich. But you can't just go for high yield. As we enter a period of slow economic growth, you have to find companies that not only have a long history of dividend increases, but can survive a U.S. recession.
That's why Emerson Electric (NYSE:EMR) and Procter and Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG)rank among our favorite dividend stocks. They have more than half of their business overseas. Both have raised their dividends every year since 1957 and 1954, respectively. Emerson yields 3.2% and P&G 3.6%.
Another top dividend stock is OmegaHealthcareInvestors(NYSE: OHI). OHI is a real estate investment trust (REIT) andthe company's leases have an inflation-protection clause built in, so your nominal yield - in this case 7% - is even better than it looks since the dividends tend to rise with inflation.
4: Farmland
Legendary Wall Street trader Jim Rogers recently offered this unconventional advice: If you want to get rich, you should be investing in farmland. "It's the farmers, the producers, who are going to be in the captain's seat when the prices go through the roof," he toldThe Australian Financial Review.
Over the last 100 years farmland, based on income and capital appreciation, has consistently delivered positive returns -- with only three brief periods of negative returns (1930s, 1980s, and 2008). And as the saying goes, they just aren't making any more of it. So a severe imbalance is developing in the supply and demand of farmland. Farmland is also an opportunity to invest in an asset class not directly correlated to stocks and bonds, and one with significantly less volatility. Rogers believes investing in farmland is "in its third inning." In other words, there's still plenty of time to get in.
One way is to invest in agricultural futures through ETFs like the PowerShares DB Commodity Index (NYSEArca:DBC). The fund tracks an entire basket of agricultural commodities including corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, sugar, coffee, cattle and pigs.
There's also Adecoagro S.A. (NYSE:AGRO), a Luxembourg-based company that owns significant farmland holdings in South America. It owns nearly 500,000 acres of farmland, consisting of 23 farms in Argentina, 13 farms in Brazil, and one in Uruguay.
Canadian citizens can invest in Agcapita Farmland Investment Partnership, a farmland private equity fund, with significant holdings in Saskatchewan, Alberta and Manitoba. Jim Rogers is actually an advisor to the fund, currently open to retail investors for a minimum investment of $10,000.
One More Thing You Should Know About...
As you now know, governments and central banks of the world have spent and borrowed us into oblivion by wasting our tax dollars, hard work, and loyal citizenship. And all the money printing by the Fed has occurred while our debt has surged to astronomical levels... Eventually foreign countries are not going to trust that investing in America is a safe bet.Even worse, our debt is creating an incomprehensible threat that is quickly bearing down on all 313 million Americans.
To understand the truth about America's economic future, take a look at this gripping investigative documentary.
You owe it to yourself to learn what else the government is hiding from you.
Source: http://moneymorning.com/2012/11/15/dont-lose-half-your-savings-four-ways-to-survive-the-coming-crash/
Labels:
Debt Crisis,
Economics,
General Markets,
Investment Strategies
March 25, 2013
In Gold we Trust, Not Cyprus - Frank Talk
By Frank Holmes
www.usfunds.com
Source: http://www.usfunds.com/investor-resources/frank-talk/in-gold-not-cyprus-we-trust/
Global investors had to muster the courage to keep calm as news of Cyprus’ proposed partial theft of all bank deposits took Wall Street by surprise, closed the country’s banks and drove the price of gold higher.
The thoughtless idea was intended to capture a portion of the $31 billion in bank assets held by Russians. According to the Financial Times, Cyprus has developed a “well-earned reputation for being a haven for dirty money from Russia.”
Although Cyprus’ government came to its senses and blocked the proposed seizure, the damage has been done. To many people around the world, raising income taxes may be one thing, but changing the rules to steal hard-earned savings from all citizens rattles their confidence. What Adrian Ash of BullionVault says is “most amazing” about this situation is that “small savers are no longer sacred.”
It’s remarkable to see the response from Cypriots, as they protested in the streets, with “NO” stamped on their palms, demanding the government take its hands off their money. In the photo, you can see their pushback to sanity.
How did this tiny island make it into the European Union (EU) in the first place? The Financial Times gave an insightful background:
“Many EU leaders had been deeply reluctant to admit Cyprus into the union in 2004, without a peace settlement that reunified the island. But Greece had threatened to veto the entire enlargement of the EU—blocking Poland, the Czech Republic and the rest—unless Cyprus was admitted. Reluctantly, EU leaders succumbed to this act of blackmail.”Five years later, we are seeing the fallout of Cyprus due to Greece’s financial woes. Many accuse Greece of cooking the books to get into the EU, and then the country proceeded to blackmail the EU at the expense of other European countries.
Crooks get punished, but what about others who unfairly change the rules or break them? Think back to the anger generated by the Ponzi scheme run by Bernie Madoff, who lost $20 billion in cash. In addition, $65 billion in paper wealth vanished. He’s serving 150 years in prison, his son committed suicide, and he’ll forever be known as a thief and a rat.
In Gold We Trust
Since the global financial crisis began, there’s been a rash of poor economic decisions from socialist policymakers scrambling to bring in more revenue to cover their overspending. Rather than streamline regulations to facilitate trade and flow of funds or cut back on welfare programs, they’d rather maintain the status quo and increase taxes.
In Greece, tough cost-cutting austerity measures were shot down after organized unionized workers were rioting in the streets. France’s socialist president, Francois Hollande, has been trying unsuccessfully to increase the top income tax rate to 75 percent in an attempt to “squeeze fat cats and hit the mega-rich, making them bear the brunt of ‘sacrifices’ needed to fix public finances,” according to The Guardian last summer.
In Hungary and Italy, we have seen the unintended consequences of envy policies after implementing a financial transaction tax.
These types of “envy policies” that would be frowned upon by Moses on Mount Sinai aren’t only happening across the Atlantic. Recently, Gene Epstein from Barron’s compared the U.S. debt situation to that of Greece’s. He writes that national debt could “easily reach 153 percent of economic output by 2035” and unemployment could climb as high as 20 percent, but the solution doesn’t lie in “asking the rich to pay a little more.” He says,
“Barron's calculates that immediately increasing the marginal tax rate to 50% on the top 1% of the country's earners would bring in $500 billion over the next 10 years. This would barely dent the country's debt load, which would then be $20 trillion, and do little to forestall a financial crisis.”I believe poorly thought out government policies hurt the formation of capital and destroy people’s trust in paper money. Leaders may have good intentions, but some of their actions show disrespect for private property and individualism.
This only reemphasizes gold as an important asset class. It may be apt timing for investors to become reacquainted with gold, as our oscillator chart shows that the yellow metal appears to be oversold. On a year-over-year basis, gold has fallen more than 2 standard deviations, an event that has rarely occurred over the past 10 years. As I’ve indicated before, following these extreme lows, gold has historically rallied.
Standard deviation is a measure of the dispersion of a
set of data from its mean. The more spread apart the data, the higher the
deviation. Standard deviation is also known as historical volatility. By
clicking the links above, you will be directed to third-party websites. U.S.
Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by these websites and
is not responsible for their content. None of U.S. Global Investors Funds held
any of the securities mentioned as of 12/31/12.
Labels:
Critical Reads,
Debt Crisis,
Gold,
Technical Analysis
As Cyprus Struggles, Now Is the Time to Buy Gold
By Peter Krauth
I'll bet a few Cypriot bank account holders are paying much closer attention to gold now.
Since the announcement that Cyprus was looking to confiscate up to 10% of bank deposits, gold has risen by up to $24/ounce on safe haven demand.
After all, gold is real wealth, and it's the only asset that's not simultaneously someone else's liability.
Central bankers, even in the West, know this too. As former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan once said:
"Gold is the canary in the coal mine. It signals problems with respect to currency markets. Central banks should pay attention to it."
I just hope the irony of that message -- and its messenger -- aren't lost on you.
As for Cyprus, this ongoing crisis has it all. Along with gold, there's debt, energy, intrigue and a long storied history...
Since the announcement that Cyprus was looking to confiscate up to 10% of bank deposits, gold has risen by up to $24/ounce on safe haven demand.
After all, gold is real wealth, and it's the only asset that's not simultaneously someone else's liability.
Central bankers, even in the West, know this too. As former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan once said:
"Gold is the canary in the coal mine. It signals problems with respect to currency markets. Central banks should pay attention to it."
I just hope the irony of that message -- and its messenger -- aren't lost on you.
As for Cyprus, this ongoing crisis has it all. Along with gold, there's debt, energy, intrigue and a long storied history...
The Cyprus Bailout Pits East vs. West
Situated just south of Turkey, west of Syria, and north of Israel, the Mediterranean island of Cyprus straddles the great divide between east and west.Thanks to its strategic location in the Middle East, Cyprus has been occupied through the ages by numerous major powers, including the Egyptians, Assyrians, Romans, Ottomans, and even the British.
In the 1970 s, Cyprus became disputed territory between the Turks and the Greeks. That's still true today.
Since joining the EU as a member state in 2004, the island nation has prospered as its economy became more diversified, and banking, tourism, and shipping flourished.
But thanks to the Greek sovereign debt crisis, a massive influx of Russians and their money, and some recently discovered natural resources, this territory is back to being disputed.
It's a battle of east and west again. This time: It's Europe and Russia.
Here's what I mean...
The Eurozone's debt crisis of 2012 has devastated Cyprus' banking system to the point where it now needs a bailout to the tune of 10 billion euros.
Cypriot banks are teetering on the edge, thanks to overexposure to the ongoing financial crisis in Greece. The European Central Bank (ECB) has threatened to cut emergency lending assistance, and Nicosia is not willing to liquidate the two large Cypriot banks in trouble since that could drag down the entire financial industry.
For Cyprus, finance is important. According to Eurogroup president Jeroen Dijsselbloem, Cyprus' banking sector is more than five times its GDP. Further, Eurogroup predicted that the island's public debt would reach 100% of GDP by 2020.
A Game of Russian Roulette
Cyprus' banks have managed to swell, thanks to an influx of money from Russian oligarchs and banks. Some estimates for the amount of Russian money in Cyprus run as high as $30 billion. According to Moody's Investors Services, adding in loans to Cyprus-registered corporations doubles Russia's exposure to about $60 billion.So a proposed 10% tax on Cypriot bank accounts would effectively be a tax on Russian money.
But that plan, hatched by the Europeans to raise $7.5 billion, was rejected by Cyprus' Parliament, throwing the bailout into doubt. For now, Europe has pledged unlimited liquidity to help keep banks afloat, so long as a deal is reached in short order.
Keep in mind, though, that a bailout of Cypriot banks is essentially a bailout of Russian depositors in those banks, not something the Europeans are particularly fond of. It is probably why they pushed so hard for the "one time" tax on those accounts, rather than a "regular" bailout of extended loans and lower interest payments like other deadbeat euro members have been getting.
Besides contributing deposits, businesses, and thousands of expats, Russia also has a 2.5 billion e uro loan to Cyprus. So clearly, Russia has plenty of reasons to care about the future of Cyprus.
But there's one more strategic reason: Energy.
The Energy Conspiracy
Given that Europe demanded the tax, and that Russia supplies that continent with 36% of its natural gas, one can already sense the tactical planning the Russians must be doing right now.Follow closely though, because this web gets even more complex and interconnected.
You see, Cyprus holds its own promise of resource riches, one the Russians have noticed.
In late 2011, Noble Energy (NYSE: NBL) announced a massive find of natural gas in offshore Cyprus, expanding its already- large inventory in neighboring Israel.
Since then Cyprus has issued exploration licenses to Noble, Total, Eni, and Korea Gas. Cyprus' finance minister Sarris went to Moscow looking for an additional 5 billion euro loan, which is about the same amount the Europeans were looking to raise through the "one time" bank tax. In return, the island nation offered Russia the opportunity to take part in tenders for offshore exploration rights.
Those talks ended on Thursday with the Russian finance minister indicating its investors weren't interested in Cyprus' gas reserves.
I just don't buy it.
The lure of up to 60 trillion cubic feet of natural gas may prove too much for Russia to snub.
One idea that had been floated was for Gazprombank, the giant Russian gas company's banking division, to buy ailing Laiki Bank, the second-largest in Cyprus, and bail it out with a 4 billion e uro recapitalization.
Gazprom is the world's largest producer of natural gas, so you can be sure they want to stay number one.
For now, Russia has declined to offer any additional help to stave off a potential banking crisis in Cyprus. My view is they don't want to alienate Europe, because if the Europeans step away from Cyprus, an immediate crisis is more likely.
And that would probably mean capital controls, as well as a reversion to the Cypriot pound as legal tender.
A newly- set exchange rate would force account holders to take an immediate haircut. If the exchange rate were allowed to be set by the market, the Cypriot pound would be worth a fraction of the euro, and living standards in Cyprus would plummet.
Russian account holders would be left holding a near-empty bag.
The Golden Link
Now Europe has given Cyprus an ultimatum: T hey must secure an agreement with the European Union and International Monetary Fund in order to keep receiving the low-interest loans that are floating their banks.The Europeans have decided that Cypriot bank accounts, whether held by Cypriots, Russians, or anyone else for that matter, ought to be fair game. They may be calling it a tax or a "one off" levy, but those are just other names for outright theft.
Faith in the fiat money system has already been in a steep decline since 2007. Trust is breaking down. Europe wants to avoid a run on banks, but their desperate actions are encouraging exactly that.
It makes one wonder what people in other troubled economies, like Italy or Spain, must be thinking about the risks to their deposits. Bank accounts - private property - can now easily be confiscated by ordering a bank holiday and skimming right off the top.
It's a lesson in the dangers of fiat money.
Meanwhile, Russia's been quietly adding to its official stash of gold reserves. The central bank recently emerged as the world's top gold buyer, adding 570 metric tons in the last decade. Today, Russia's central bank holds 936.7 metric tons of gold, equal to 9.6% of national forex reserves.
There's little doubt that Russian tycoons have been among the recent wave of gold buyers.
Given Russia's central bank buying spree, it's entirely likely they've seen the snowballing risks underlying the Cyprus banking system. And the gold buying by Russian oligarchs and central bankers alike is expected to be stepped up.
As Evgeny Fedorov, a lawmaker with Putin's United Russia Party, told Bloomberg last month, "The more gold a country has, the more sovereignty it will have if there's a cataclysm with the dollar, the euro, the pound, or any other reserve currency ."
It sounds to me like gold is in fact the ultimate reserve currency. It's just ironic that the center of the former communist empire is the country that "gets it ."
As Cyprus struggles, it's just another example of why now is the time to buy gold.
March 23, 2013
Thieves, Cheaters and Liars, or as Shah might say: Bankers!
By SHAH GILAN
www.moneymorning.com
www.moneymorning.com
Lett's talk about the Cyprus bailout, the International Monetary Fund, and the European Central Bank.
Let's call what the IMF and ECB are doing what it really is. After all, it is the ultimate institutional goal. It's thieving.
So let's start with the thieves...
The IMF, on behalf of the big global banks it serves, and the ECB, on behalf of the big European banks it serves, is stealing, without any authority whatsoever (other than under cover of the European Commission, which they jointly own) depositors' money in all the banks in Cyprus.
Because all the banks that lent to the Cypriot banks to keep them in business are now about to get shafted.
Why?
There's a few missing seats in their musical chairs merry-go-round, so they are enforcing their right to get bailed out.
How will the banks do it?
They'll deputize the European Commission to go in, with the international backing of the IMF (the ultimate tool of global bankers) and the local backing of the ECB, to steal enough money to give back to themselves.
This is so they can then use what they stole that as "reserves" to make themselves look better.
That in turn makes the ECB and IMF look healthier, so the IMF and ECB can lend more money to the same banks in Cyprus, whose depositors they just stole from, to bail them out.
I am not kidding.
If you can't make money the old fashioned way, by earning it through diligent, methodical work, the easy way to make it is to just steal it.
That's what banks do. They used to (though I can't remember that far back, if ever) earn their money slowly and incrementally, which is why bankers used to have two-martini lunches and play golf on Wednesdays with their doctors and corporate clients. They had time back then. Not everybody and their brothers were in the game.
That's all changed.
Now banking is about gigantic economies of scale. Blankets of schemes covering industrial sectors, nations, and the globe are woven from soiled cloth for massive earnings to pay fantastic bonuses that make doctors and most corporate executives seem like paupers.
How does it all work without them blowing themselves up and going to jail?
How can an amalgamation of small and large cartels - all in the same game, all shaking down the same sheep - be part of a grand cartel and not really have a worry in the world?
That's because the banks themselves created central banks and the IMF. They created their saviors to look like they were subject to them, in terms of rules, regulations, the safety of the system, and the public. But that's just what they wanted the world to think.
The IMF and the ECB are the thieves' bosses in Cyprus. Actually, they are their sycophant underlings masquerading as hall monitors in an elementary school where the bankers themselves are the principals.
The lenders of last resort are about to resort to the unthinkable. Instead of just printing money to give to their banker constituents (purchasing power stolen through inflation) they are about reach into depositors' accounts, look them in the eye and say, "We're sorry, but it's our money anyway."
This changes everything.
For the first time in modern history the light of day is being cast on the great vampire squids from depths of Mordor. Maybe (but I doubt it) the world can begin to see the noose that banks have around our necks.
And that we will hang ourselves if we don't break up all the big banks and the central banks that use government power to back the true usurpers of humankind.
Then there are the cheats.
SAC Capital Advisors just paid over $600 million dollars to settle civil insider trading charges. But of course they're not guilty. They didn't admit to anything - other than some stuff happened that they promise to not let happen again.
Are they cheats at SAC? No, they just like paying big fines and distancing themselves from former employees who were convicted of insider trading. What a coincidence.
Then there are the liars.
Yes, all of them, but I'm specifically talking about JPMorgan Chase.
Make that allegedly, as in allegedly liars. After all, I don't want to get sued by a bunch of trillionaire bullies for calling them what they are... allegedly.
But if I were to call you all liars...
You, Jamie Dimon...
You, Douglas Braunstein...
You, Ina Drew...
You, Michael Cavanaugh...
Would you be willing to take lie detector tests tomorrow - without prep time - to prove I'm a worthless, muckraking tool?
Would you be willing to test your mettle - not against the patsies in Congress who you all just lied to - but to a machine that's as cold as you all are? Would you like to tell us what you really hid from the regulators about the London Whale's losses?
Come on. Here's a chance to clear your names. I'll ask the questions...
For background, I'd tell you that I know how trading desks work. I've been a trader on some very interesting desks.
I was at a former Primary Dealer that had to be bailed out because one of our government traders sank the firm. He hid his trading loses (in his locked desk drawer... this was the old days) so the winning side of his bets could net him a million dollar bonus (which he received). In those days, that was the equivalent of what about $10 million is today.
I was at one of the world's biggest banks, brought in to hedge their government bond desk, the currency desk, and the derivatives desk, and long after I left I saw that bank get bailed out. What I saw there I can't talk about, I'd get sued. But I saw what I saw.
I've run hedge funds, too. So, you might say I'm fairly well-versed on how traders interact with their desks, with their immediate supervisors, with senior management, with risk managers, and how what they do gets reported up the line to the CIO, the CFO, and the CEO.
Now let me ask each of you a few questions, and remember you're hooked up to that machine.
Wait, where are you going, Come back, you're flying out of here with all those wires attached to you.
Oh, well. They're gone.
Maybe they were telling the truth.
Maybe pigs do fly.
Source: http://moneymorning.com/2013/03/20/the-cyprus-bailout-exposes-a-world-of-thieves-cheats-and-liars/
Source: http://moneymorning.com/2013/03/20/the-cyprus-bailout-exposes-a-world-of-thieves-cheats-and-liars/
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)