I am still waiting for the transportation index ....
9199.65
One of the interesting things about Dow's theory of the stock markets is his postulation that current prices reflect all current knowledge. I think, therefore, that it's telling when the Dow has been surging to new all time highs, reflecting an assumed increase in future consumer confidence through increased production and warehouse sales.
But the transportations are stalling.
It's anyone's guess as to why.
In terms of the Dow Jones Industrial index, Consumer confidence rebounded in November to pre-recession levels. https://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm
This should bode well for transportation companies. When consumers spend, stuff and people will move. Shelves will empty and need to be re-stocked, and people will spend more on travel.
Speaking of travel, air travels looks like it's been increasing this year: https://www.thinkwithgoogle.com/category-trends/travel-air-q2-2016.html
Shipping Stocks are also starting to move worldwide: http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanvardi/2016/11/15/the-donald-trump-shipping-stock-boom/#73f9378aa536
The one thing that I do see which could be capping the transportation index is Europe. With Italy voting on December 4th to either maintain the status quo or bring in sweeping political reform, a "No" vote could have sweeping consequences on the global financial system as a no vote, some say, will likely lead to the eventual breakdown of the European Union.
Those are big words, I know. But bear them in mind. If we don't hit a new all time high on the transportations today, then I think there's a great chance we aren't going to hit them for a while.
That's just speculation of course, so I'll leave it there and follow the numbers when making decisions.
Happy investing
