Showing posts with label Currency. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Currency. Show all posts

April 16, 2012

Mobile Cash: The New Currency Wave

You don't realize it but there's a fortune in your wallet right now. What? You don't see it? That's because you're looking in the wrong wallet. Take out your cell phone. In your hand right now is your financial future if you want to get rich. Your smartphone is about to become your new "digital wallet."

When it comes to your credit, your investments, your banking relationships, how you shop, how you are marketed to and how you pay for everything, your new digital wallet will be at the center of it all. Understanding what kind of hardware your wallet takes, who delivers your digital services, and understanding your relationship to digital money will be the keys to making a bundle off of it all.

In fact, as the race to shape the future of e-commerce and e-payments develops, fortunes will be made by investing in the companies destined to be big winners in this fast-growing trend. With that in mind, here's a snapshot of what's here now, where the trend is headed and how you can ride this phenomenal wave all the way to your own private beach.

The Rise of the Digital Wallet

First, you have to realize that you don't use a lot of cash-even though you think you do. The truth is the whole world is using less and less cash. On the low end, Swedes transact commerce in cash only 3% of the time. Europeans pay with cash 9% of the time. And Americans pay in cash only 7% of the time. The rest of the time we're using credit cards, debit cards, prepaid cards, checks, coupons, the Internet, and increasingly, cellphones.

There are several reasons why we're using cash less. One reason we're using less cash is that governments don't want us using cash. Take America, for example. The U.S. used to issue notes in denominations of $500, $1,000, $5,000, $10,000, and $100,000. Printing of large denomination notes stopped in 1945 and they were taken out of circulation by 1969. Besides the cost of printing and minting cash and problems with counterfeiting, governments like to keep tabs on who has money and who is and isn't paying their taxes.That's a lot easier in the digital world, where electronic transfers are easily traceable. Of course, we've also gotten used to the convenience, and most of the time the "safety" of using plastic and electronic transfer schemes to buy goods and services and pay bills.

So, naturally, as more and more of us lighten our pockets by combining our calculators, our day-minders, our cameras, our memories and our access to the wider world with our smartphone touch screens, it makes sense to dump our wallets in there, too. Identifying trends, new technologies, applications, "contact points" and "stakeholders" in the world of digital commerce and payments is the first step to successfully investing in this soon-to-be explosive space.

This One is Going to be Enormous

And make no mistake about it. It's going to be huge. But first, there are a lot of questions that investors need to address and get the right answers to before they can start counting the gains in their digital portfolios.

For instance...

Who are the players now, who is getting into the business, who will the winners be? What role will telecom providers have? Will they continue to just facilitate connectivity, or will they start buying downstream servicers and vertically integrate new technologies? How will banks react to the threat of disintermediation as new players trample their turf? What trends and needs will shape hardware, and who will emerge as the leading device makers? Who will profit from proliferation of new applications? What will drive software innovation and how much room will there be for existing and up-and-coming contenders in the ever-evolving software wars? What role will social media play in the future of e-commerce and how will social media aggregators monetize interconnectivity of their members? Who will emerge as the point-of-contact device makers, connecting buyers and sellers at point of sale spots? Who will command the high ground in the all-important security services battleground? How will data be stored and by whom? Who will own the data and how will data be monetized? What role will merchants play and how will some steal market share from competitors by using new digital wallet applications? How will global use of digital wallets change marketing and advertising and who will be the big winners in this important space?

There are almost as many questions to ask about who the winners and losers will be as there are opportunities to profit from the inevitable future of a digital wallet world. Here's the thing: I'm all about you and me making money on this rapidly unfolding destiny. But it's impossible to set us all off in the right investment direction in a single article. The space is too big. That's why this introduction to the opportunities inherent in the new age of digital wallets is just the beginning. It will be followed up by more comprehensive reporting providing the details on what I've touched on here.

Investing in the Digital Wallet

And as it develops, you will receive more Money Morning articles about emerging trends and companies that are shaping the landscape in this wild-west frontier. Of course I will be recommending lots of specific investments to my Capital Waves Forecast subscribers, but I will also be supplying my good friend Bill Patalon with great company names and investment recommendations for the avid followers of his Private Briefing columns. Why am I going to give Bill some insightful information and picks? Because Bill has been urging me for more than a year to command this exciting space and apply my research resources to it.

And, thanks to Bill I'm overwhelmed by the opportunities I've uncovered. So, he deserves credit and some hot recommendations that I know he can't wait to pass along to his Private Briefing fans. On Wednesday, I'll dig even deeper into this money-making trend. So stay tuned.

[Editor's Note: In the age of the digital wallet every electronic device will need a first-rate security system.
In fact, 2.5 million cell phone subscribers were hit with malicious viruses just in the first quarter last year. We've found a global cyber-security outfit that is uniquely positioned to corner the market on security for these devices. You can learn more about this investment opportunity by clicking here.]

Source: http://moneymorning.com/2012/04/16/turn-your-digital-wallet-into-a-money-machine/

April 5, 2012

China, Sweden, Norway, Treasuries and Gold

This week's notable quotes (or the "if you read anything this week" quotes) come from Chuck Butler's daily "Pfenning for your thoughts". To sign up for the Pfenning, check out http://www.dailypfennig.com/

On China

"I told you all last year, that China was shifting away from the export driven economy to a domestic demand economy, and while the change is nascent at best, it is going on."

On Norway

"Norwegian leaders are contemplating the implementation of a "cap"  for the krone VS the euro, much like the Swiss did back in September last year ... So, I guess it doesn't pay to have the best surplus of any AAA rated nation in the world. no debt, and an economy that will most likely expand 3.25% this year, and a banking sector that's very strong ...

Gold avalanche: We like Norway, and think it's an economy worth looking to invest in. Here is something to get your engine started: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/norway-etfs-safer-european-play-143459790.html

On Treasuries

"I suggest you sit down for this one.  Did you know that the in 2011, The Fed purchased 61% of the total net Treasury obligations that were issued?"

Gold Avalanche: All we can say is daaaaannnnnng -- so much for foreign countries owning most of the US' debt. Looks like a majority of it is falling on the backs of US citizens.  In other news, the Swiss national bank has imposed a floor on the amount the Euro can devalue itself against the Swiss Frank, and that floor (1.20) is currently being challenged. Chuck writes the following:

On Sweden

"What will the SNB (Swiss national bank) do should this cross really, truly breaches the floor level of 1.20? That's a good question, kids. but for all of you at home keeping score, you might want to take a note here, because Chuck thinks that should 1.20 be really, truly breached ,  the SNB will intervene, and sell francs and buy euros. That is if they have a strong backbone."

(see our comments below)

Chuck Bulter is president of Everbank World Currencies. To  learn more about their services, please visit http://www.everbank.com.


Gold Avalanche:  On Sweden, we would add "and if the SNB is near sighed enough to actually think that devaluing their currency is a good idea. It's not, but they might be. Quite frankly, in our view, purposefully devaluing a strong currency in the current world economic climate is not only fear-driven, but a short-sighted at best, stupid at worst, definitely ill-gotten, borderline insane and quite possibly certifiably insane thing to follow through with."

*edit - but hey, maybe it will work ... our fingers are crossed for them ... because that's about all any of us lowly spectators can do. That, and buy gold for both prudence and protection against the ill-begotten plans of central banks.

September 24, 2011

Special Feature - Gold and Currency

Here are some interesting charts I created over at http://www.oanda.com/currency/historical-rates/

The first is a chart of the US dollar against some key world currencies. This shows the strength of the USD against each currency. The downward trend means that each of the currencies had been gaining ground against the US dollar for the majority of the year, but suddenly experienced a sharp decline in the past month, which is shown with the spike in strength of the USD near the end of September. That's not a coincidence.


So even though the Gold price in each of these currencies has fallen the same percentage as it has in USD, the relative expense of the metal will continue to be inflating against the US dollar and thus more expensive if the big central banks are able to continue this manipulation scheme.


Here is a further breakdown for 1oz of gold in several currencies, ordered from best to the worst.

US Dollars
September 23rd - $1,656.30 USD
 August 30th - $1,827.05 USD
Change from August 30th to September 24th: -170.75


Canadian Dollar
September 24th - 1,702.68
August 31st - 1,786.67
Change from August 30th to Sept 23rd:  -$84CAD/81USD!

UK pound (Sterling)
September 23rd - 1,071.46 Pounds
August 30th - 1,124.00 Pounds.
Change from August 30th to Sept 23rd: -$52.54GBP/80.90USD!

Euro
September 24th - 1,227.65 Euros
August 30th - 1,271.08 Euros
Change from August 30th to Sept 23rd: -43.43EUR/$58USD!

Australian dollar
September 23rd - 1,692.41
August 30th - 1,708.29
Change from August 30th to Sept 23rd: -15.88AUD/15.49USD

Mexican Peso
September 23rd - 22,843.69 Pesos
August 30th -  22,527.89 Pesos.
Change from August 30th to Sept 23rd:  +315 Pesos/$22.5 USD 


Swiss Franc
September 24th - 1,500.11 Francs
August 30th - 1,472.24 Francs
Change from August 30th to Sept 23rd: +27.26 Francs/30USD!

I obtained the data for gold prices from http://goldpricenetwork.com/gold-price-history/ and used google's currency converter to convert the currencies. I highly recommend you check it out and see the data for yourself. It's not pretty.

As the Gold price in the US has declined almost $200 in the past month, it has not come even close to this pull-back in any other world currency, and has actually RISEN in some countries! This would be fine if the US had a great economy with solid fundamentals, but as everyone has seen over the past three years, this is blatantly not the case. There is no logical economic reason for the US dollar to remain strong, yet here we are. So, you can see that even major world currencies have somehow found a way to deflate against the American dollar, despite the fact that the US is still hopelessly in debt, and the steps being taken to 'resolve' the issues of overspending and un-checked money printing with more overspending and more money printing are not solutions at all. This recent market events defy all logic, and will HAVE to correct at some point. But when? It is possible that the US government via the big banks will continue to use their international clout to somehow keep the US dollar strong while every other currency effectively deflates against it. If this is the case, it would be nothing short of criminal, that's for sure.

If and when the gig finally ends for the security of the US dollar, it will be a very bad day for anyone holding treasuries or trading dollars as a safe haven. In my mind, the only safe havens that are left is gold and silver, but especially gold. That doesn't protect the metal from selling-off, or even selling-off heavily. People like to take profits when the price of Gold heads for the sky, and Big banks still have massive short positions in both gold and silver - so be warned.

Here are more gold charts for your viewing pleasure:
Kitco 30-day gold in USD

Kitco 24-hour Gold Spot Price (Current)


Usefulness of the Data

You can use this data to figure out the spot price of 1oz of gold in your home currency to see the effects of the manipulated inflation/deflation of your currency against the US dollar. The first step is to find the spot price of 1oz of gold in US dollars. As of the end of yesterday's trading, the spot price was 1657.20USD. Next, we need to convert this to your country's currency. We can do this easily using google.

Example: perform a google search using the following search string: 1657.20USD in CAD

You should get the following result (as of September 24th, 2011):  
1 657.20 U.S. dollars = 1 703.76737 Canadian dollars

It's not a perfect system, but it's easy and can give you an overview of where things stand on any given day. 

Here is a link to make things even easier. Simply change the quantity to today's 1oz Gold spot price using the kitco chart above, and change "Canadian Dollars" to the name of your home currency (British Pounds, Swiss Francs, Euro, Indian Rupees, Mexican Pesos, etc).

Well that's it for today. Happy investing!