September 24, 2011

Special Feature - Gold and Currency

Here are some interesting charts I created over at http://www.oanda.com/currency/historical-rates/

The first is a chart of the US dollar against some key world currencies. This shows the strength of the USD against each currency. The downward trend means that each of the currencies had been gaining ground against the US dollar for the majority of the year, but suddenly experienced a sharp decline in the past month, which is shown with the spike in strength of the USD near the end of September. That's not a coincidence.


So even though the Gold price in each of these currencies has fallen the same percentage as it has in USD, the relative expense of the metal will continue to be inflating against the US dollar and thus more expensive if the big central banks are able to continue this manipulation scheme.


Here is a further breakdown for 1oz of gold in several currencies, ordered from best to the worst.

US Dollars
September 23rd - $1,656.30 USD
 August 30th - $1,827.05 USD
Change from August 30th to September 24th: -170.75


Canadian Dollar
September 24th - 1,702.68
August 31st - 1,786.67
Change from August 30th to Sept 23rd:  -$84CAD/81USD!

UK pound (Sterling)
September 23rd - 1,071.46 Pounds
August 30th - 1,124.00 Pounds.
Change from August 30th to Sept 23rd: -$52.54GBP/80.90USD!

Euro
September 24th - 1,227.65 Euros
August 30th - 1,271.08 Euros
Change from August 30th to Sept 23rd: -43.43EUR/$58USD!

Australian dollar
September 23rd - 1,692.41
August 30th - 1,708.29
Change from August 30th to Sept 23rd: -15.88AUD/15.49USD

Mexican Peso
September 23rd - 22,843.69 Pesos
August 30th -  22,527.89 Pesos.
Change from August 30th to Sept 23rd:  +315 Pesos/$22.5 USD 


Swiss Franc
September 24th - 1,500.11 Francs
August 30th - 1,472.24 Francs
Change from August 30th to Sept 23rd: +27.26 Francs/30USD!

I obtained the data for gold prices from http://goldpricenetwork.com/gold-price-history/ and used google's currency converter to convert the currencies. I highly recommend you check it out and see the data for yourself. It's not pretty.

As the Gold price in the US has declined almost $200 in the past month, it has not come even close to this pull-back in any other world currency, and has actually RISEN in some countries! This would be fine if the US had a great economy with solid fundamentals, but as everyone has seen over the past three years, this is blatantly not the case. There is no logical economic reason for the US dollar to remain strong, yet here we are. So, you can see that even major world currencies have somehow found a way to deflate against the American dollar, despite the fact that the US is still hopelessly in debt, and the steps being taken to 'resolve' the issues of overspending and un-checked money printing with more overspending and more money printing are not solutions at all. This recent market events defy all logic, and will HAVE to correct at some point. But when? It is possible that the US government via the big banks will continue to use their international clout to somehow keep the US dollar strong while every other currency effectively deflates against it. If this is the case, it would be nothing short of criminal, that's for sure.

If and when the gig finally ends for the security of the US dollar, it will be a very bad day for anyone holding treasuries or trading dollars as a safe haven. In my mind, the only safe havens that are left is gold and silver, but especially gold. That doesn't protect the metal from selling-off, or even selling-off heavily. People like to take profits when the price of Gold heads for the sky, and Big banks still have massive short positions in both gold and silver - so be warned.

Here are more gold charts for your viewing pleasure:
Kitco 30-day gold in USD

Kitco 24-hour Gold Spot Price (Current)


Usefulness of the Data

You can use this data to figure out the spot price of 1oz of gold in your home currency to see the effects of the manipulated inflation/deflation of your currency against the US dollar. The first step is to find the spot price of 1oz of gold in US dollars. As of the end of yesterday's trading, the spot price was 1657.20USD. Next, we need to convert this to your country's currency. We can do this easily using google.

Example: perform a google search using the following search string: 1657.20USD in CAD

You should get the following result (as of September 24th, 2011):  
1 657.20 U.S. dollars = 1 703.76737 Canadian dollars

It's not a perfect system, but it's easy and can give you an overview of where things stand on any given day. 

Here is a link to make things even easier. Simply change the quantity to today's 1oz Gold spot price using the kitco chart above, and change "Canadian Dollars" to the name of your home currency (British Pounds, Swiss Francs, Euro, Indian Rupees, Mexican Pesos, etc).

Well that's it for today. Happy investing!