I was just working on a chart looking at the last 5 years of trading for the Euro - and it looks to be on a definite downward trend. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see either $1.40 or $1.20 in the coming weeks and months. I think which direction it heads depends on how long "Merkozy" keep playing games, and when/if the focus of debt problems shifts back to the US.
On the chart above, I guess at the Euro eventually falling to $1.13 (not 1.14 - typo on the chart pic - sorry!) before mounting any sort of significant rally, which may (at that point) take it only back up to a max of $1.40 (that is, after all, a significant point of resistance). Note that most technical analysis is forecasting the Euro to reach down to $1.10 ... So $1.14 is my unprofessional ballpark based on the previous decline from around $1.25 to $1.19 - a decline of $0.06.
The important thing here, however, is not whether the EUR hits 1.14, 1.13, or even 1.10 ... the important thing is that by all practical means, the EUR has a very good chance of significantly taking out the $1.20 mark to the downside. Going ultra short on the Euro for a month or two is a fairly clear opportunity -- though not for the faint of heart!! (note: that opportunity will be passing by soon ... but may resurface later)
