| August 19, 2012 By Scott Pluschau Weekend Update - Gold
Posted: 19 Aug 2012 06:57 AM PDT
$1,620 is still a key reference area in the near term, but the "triangle" pattern on the 30 minute chart (see left hand side below) inside the triangle pattern on the daily chart (see right hand side below) is what is most important to me at this time from my perspective. The triangles are showing a battle of increasing demand and steady supply.
I don't see gold staying in a "range" or "noise" for long, and the "vertical development" afterward is what I mostly want to be involved in as a trader. There are still other major key reference areas to keep an eye on in the intermediate-long term in my opinion. The major trendlines of the "Descending Triangle" on the daily/weekly chart are the dominant pattern. This is a pattern of increasing supply from longer term traders and investors, with a fixed level of demand likewise from the longer term traders and investors in the bigger picture. The upper trendline continues to get closer to the price action and is currently situated at a level of $1,650 approximately, which was a very important "High Volume Node" of a previous major consolidation pattern from March-May of 2012. (I have this pointed out in a previous post here: http://scottpluschau.blogspot. At that time when the consolidation broke down I didn't feel we would be seeing $1,650 for quite some time. This was detailed in the previous post to the one above. (http://scottpluschau. The analysis of the charts in gold on this blog have been consistent and objective since the beginning. The final two weeks of August are traditionally very light volume, so posting on the blog will be at a minimum most likely. I will also be spending much of my time working on a new service for subscribers that will begin the week after Labor Day. (Click on chart to expand)  Last weekends post in gold can be found here: http://scottpluschau.blogspot. I do my best to tweet out my posts promptly on twitter/ScottPluschau Consulting? ScottPluschau@gmail.com Members to the blog are appreciated Comments are welcome   |
Weekend Update - Silver
Posted: 19 Aug 2012 07:00 AM PDT
There was a breakout of a small "Symmetrical Triangle" on the daily chart in Silver that was identified previously on the blog. At the time I felt that the apex of the triangle should offer initial support and it has held so far. I am still cautiously bullish even though the near term patterns are showing increasing demand with each selloff due to the structure of the bigger picture.
I would trail a stop should silver breakout out of the new upper trendline of the new triangle to below its nearest reaction point of the lower trendline to limit the risk. The left hand side chart is a daily chart zoomed in for 3 months. These patterns are "miniscule" compared to the right hand side dominant "Descending Triangle" pattern on the daily/weekly chart. The weekly pattern should always be respected. And respect is handled with correct "money management" and "position sizing" principles. The final two weeks of August are traditionally very light volume, so posting on the blog will be at a minimum most likely. I will also be spending much of my time working on a new service for subscribers that will begin the week after Labor Day. (Click on chart to expand)  The previous weekend update in Silver that identified the apex of the small triangle as initial support can be found here: http://scottpluschau.blogspot.
Comments on the blog are welcomed
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Weekend Update - Dollar, Gas, Bonds, Copper, Oil
Posted: 19 Aug 2012 07:01 AM PDT
Brief weekend updates on each:
On a side note: The final two weeks of August are traditionally very light volume, so posting on the blog will be at a minimum most likely. I will also be spending much of my time working on a new service for subscribers that will begin the week after Labor Day. The Dollar Index is still above major support of the bullish "Cup with a handle" pattern on the weekly chart. There has a reversal after the failed breakdown of a small "descending triangle" on the 30 minute chart and now a larger "ascending triangle" is in play. (Click on all charts to expand)  Natural Gas had a breakdown of the "Wedge", and a nasty "Bear Flag" on the smaller degree timeframe offered incredible reward to risk within the context of the bigger picture. The bigger picture is still the "Inverted Head and Shoulders" pattern, and NG is at support of the prior extended neckline after reaching the "Measured Rule" of the flag pattern.  Treasury Bonds are at Major Support. Until there is a breakdown from here the bias has to be to the long side on any new developments in my opinion.  Copper has a potential bearish "Head and Shoulders" pattern on the daily chart.  Crude Oil just reached the target of a triangle on the 30 minute chart, and is in a tight wedge on the daily.  Previous posts are as follows: Dollar Index is here: http://scottpluschau.blogspot. Gas: http://scottpluschau.blogspot. Bonds: http://scottpluschau.blogspot. Crude: http://scottpluschau.blogspot.
Comments on the blog are welcomed
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Weekend Update - S&P 500
Posted: 19 Aug 2012 07:01 AM PDT
In a previous post on the S&P 500 the discussion was on trailing a stop to limit the loss after the breakout from the "Ascending Triangle" pattern on the 30 minute chart, see left hand side below. Should this new stop have gotten executed then it was the right decision to take a loss based on probability. The stops were placed in the correct location regardless of whether or not they got executed in my opinion. Beware of "Hindsight Bias"
The stop needs to be trailed once again in my opinion. Why? In the big picture the S&P500 mini futures are hugging the extended "Return Line" of the bullish rising channel. Basically there are three things that can happen from here: a "reaction", a "continuation" along the line, or a "blastoff" through it. The initial target of the triangle using "Measured Rule" is $1420.50. What would be the right thing to do with an existing position on should any one of these scenarios come to fruition and still have the ability to capitalize? I believe trailing the stop is the right thing to do. The first trail of the stop limited loss, the second trail was protecting gains based on good reason and not because of psychological disorders or solely due to the "P&L". I do not see any reason to short the S&P 500 based on the structure of the charts. But I eagerly await the opportunity for a couple of reasons. Perhaps there will be new developments to trade on the long side. Trading on the long side will continue to be conservative. The final two weeks of August are traditionally very light volume, so posting on the blog will be at a minimum most likely. I will also be working on the new service for subscribers that will begin the week after Labor Day. (Click on chart to expand)  The link to that post on the trade management of the S&P500 can be found here: http://scottpluschau.blogspot. twitter/ScottPluschau Consulting? ScottPluschau@gmail.com Members to Scott's blog are appreciated
Comments on the blog are welcomed
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August 19, 2012
Weekend Updates: Gold, Silver, Oil&Gas, S&P500
