What is important to note in the Nasdaq 100 chart is right here

What is important to note in the Nasdaq 100 chart is right here By Scott Pluschau Posted: 28 Feb 2013 07:05 AM PST The Nasdaq 100 rallied hard off after failing to breakdown trendline support on the Daily chart, see right hand side below.  I was setting myself up to go "Jugular" below the Bearish "Inverted Ascending Triangle" with an "Igniter Move" in price and volume on a breakdown of the trendline, but the Bulls in the larger degree timeframe continue to earn and deserve respect. Near term the Nasdaq 100 has been making a set of lower lows and lower highs, (Blue Ovals left hand side 30 min chart) and even with the huge rally yesterday, this does not change the near term trend yet.  The long trade has low expectancy. These are key reference areas to work with going forward for day-traders and swing/position traders, and long term traders in my opinion. When I used to go ice climbing in Huntington Ravine on Mt. Washington the park rangers used to post the avalanche warnings each day.  They went from low avalanche danger, to moderate, to considerable, to high, and to extreme avalanche danger.  Climbing in "Low Avalanche Danger" has a low expectancy of an avalanche, however that does not mean you can't get caught up in one.  Yesterday was the avalanche to the upside in NQ. After identifying the phase of development a market is trading in, and identifying patterns, I am looking for favorable trade locations in terms of probabilities, reward and risk, and when the avalanche warning is "Extreme Danger" for one side of the contract long or short, that side might still make it up the ravine in one piece.  I wouldn't feel comfortable doing that consistently over time.  It all comes down to whether or not a climber gets caught in any avalanche on the slopes that they have a beacon, avalanche safety gear, or perhaps step to the side in time, which in this business means always have good risk management, and money management/position sizing in order to escape unhurt and climb again. (Click on chart to expand) Stay in tune with the phases of development, and patterns of price and volume each trading day with the swing/position trade model portfolio service to begin tomorrow.  Details here:  http://scottpluschau.blogspot.com/p/subscription.html This weekend begins the first issue in the "Hard Asset" Long Term Investing Model Portfolio, and those details can be found here: http://scottpluschau.blogspot.com/p/hard-asset-model-portfolio.html Email for interest ScottPluschau@gmail.com After this weekend the model portfolio services will be closed to new subscribers until at least April 1st. The last post on the Blog on the Nasdaq 100 is here:   http://scottpluschau.blogspot.com/2013/02/nasdaq-100-on-trendline-support.html Twitter/ScottPluschau