June 11, 2012

Three Scenarios to Watch in the Coming Weeks

By Ryan McGuire
for Gold Avalanche

I'm closely watching the Dow Theory relationship on the weekly charts to find a sell signal. So far, I haven't seen a definite broad sell signal, so I'm holding my current positions (which are well researched recommendations .. not random stocks I picked out of a hat ... just to be clear).

Here's What I'm looking for and the Questions I'm asking

Will the Dow will surpass an old weekly high of 13228.31? If it does, and if the transportation average surpasses it's old weekly high of 5368.93 as well, then we're in very good shape for a sustained rally.

OR

What if the transportation average lags the Dow as the Dow makes a new weekly high? In this case, I will be expecting another sharp sell-off soon to follow (and a potential buying opportunity).

OR

What if the Dow does not surpass that old high, but the transportation average makes a new high? If that happens on any significant level (there are a few 'highs' that I'm watching for each average to break through), I'll be waiting for confirmation that the Dow is starting to move lower, at which point I would be making a strong move into short-term vix futures, bonds and inverse securities, because the sell-off under this final scenario would be large and potentially quite painful.