www.scottpluschau.blogspot.com
The current pattern in Treasury Bond futures is an explosive one (See right hand side daily chart below). Trading "inside" this pattern right now is guessing on future direction in my opinion. Guessing is Gambling/Betting. While a trader might hit a home run guessing on future direction, there is no "edge" in gambling or guessing over time, which leads to ruin.
I have been waiting patiently for good enough "probabilities" in order to get involved trading Treasury bond futures for quite some time. I believe great trading opportunities are on the horizon if this contract breaks away from this Triangle/Balance area with an "Igniter Move", which will trap the losers in the most recent "Open Interest" who were speculating or hedging inside the pattern.
When the losers with leverage hit the exits to cut losses, or have to liquidate with margin calls, a great trader is going to make them pay for it dearly. That is the nature of the game, and it is critical to know the outcome for these rules of the zero sum game of futures, which is the losers pay the winners. Always.
(Click on chart to expand)
Does it matter to me what the fundamentals are for Bonds? Does it matter if there is central bank intervention? Does it matter what the ETF's are doing? I can answer that unequivocally "no".
After there is a breakout or breakdown in the big picture, and I am wrong on a trade in the smaller degree timeframe, that coincides with the bigger picture, I welcome the loss, as much as the profit, it's that simple.
My most recent post on Treasury Bonds and the blowoff volume found on the daily chart can be found here: http://scottpluschau.blogspot.com/2012/06/blowoff-volume-on-30-year-treasury.html
twitter/ScottPluschau
Consulting? ScottPluschau@gmail.com
Members to Scott's blog are appreciated
