By Scott Pluschau
www.scottpluschau.blogspot.com
March 1st begins the next issue in the swing/position trade model portfolio service, but also begins the new long term investing Hard Asset portfolio service as well. Email me for interest and how to sign up. After March 1st, the subscriptions will be temporarily closed to new subscribers. More to come on the Blog about the two services in the coming days.
There is a potential change in trend in the near term in 10 Year US Treasury Notes as there is a breakout from a triangle on the 30 minute chart that coincides with a break of a Bearish Channel on the Daily chart to the upside with increasing volume the past two trading days.
There is a more dominant pattern on the Daily chart and these support and resistance levels of the larger pattern are key reference areas going forward.
(Click on charts to expand)
10 Year Treasury Note
5 Year Treasury Note
The 5 Year Treasury Note is in Balance in the Daily timeframe and the upper and lower extremes of the Balance Area are clear. These are key reference areas to work with going forward.
Treasury Bonds
The path of least resistance in US Treasury Bonds is lower on a break in horizontal support. The pattern on the Daily is what I call a "Sunken Head and Shoulders" and notice the back test of prior support became resistance in late December 2012.
Stay in tune with the ever changing patterns and phases of development in price and volume in one of the premium services.
March 1st begins the next issue in the swing/position trade model portfolio service, but also begins the new long term investing Hard Asset portfolio service as well. Email me for interest and how to sign up. After March 1st, the subscriptions will be temporarily closed to new subscribers.
More to come on the Blog about the two services in the coming days.
Using Auction Market Principles as my guide the US Dollar Index is at the "Upper Extreme" or "Unfair High" of a large Balance Area in the Daily timeframe. Volume has been very strong recently.
The "initiative move" from the larger degree timeframe traders would likely send the Dollar Index into a bullish trend from the upper extreme of the balance area and leave behind approximately the 81.50 level as strong support.
The "responsive move" from the larger degree timeframe traders would likely send the Dollar Index back toward the "High Volume Node" (i.e. Fair Value) of the balance area as an initial target, and the lower extreme as a secondary target. Failed initiative moves can retrace the width of a balance area in a fraction of the time it took to form it.
There is plenty of consequences to commodities with a weaker and stronger dollar. The weekly timeframe candlestick analysis, and the COT reports in a host of contracts are more important this weekend than usual and I am eager to get to work tomorrow on the weekend update to subscribers.
Stay in tune with the ever changing patterns and phases of development in price and volume in one of the premium services.
(Click on chart to expand)
There has been an increase in Volume on the Daily chart (right hand side below) with the Bearish price action in the S&P 500 this week, (climbed the stairs and took the elevator down two floors) but most importantly there is potential for a near term change in trend in the hourly chart (left hand side chart below).
Notice where the prior resistance level is clear at 1510 in early February, which then became a strong support level afterward in the middle of the month, which is textbook. Will it now be once again strong resistance? The pattern in volume is definitely shaky for the Bulls.
The Bulls want to blast through here at 1510 and step up on any "throwback" afterward. However a failure to break through or stick the landing above here, and then a fall through 1490 with increasing volume is a near term change in trend. That would leave considerable overhead supply in the auction profile. It would then take a good amount of demand to put it back up. Not impossible but a serious task.
Will there be consolidation/congestion "Accumulation" for the next move higher in the 1490-1510 range, or does this set up a the pattern of "Distribution"? I am biased for specific reasons such as the bearish negative divergence in commodities, and the price/volume divergence, as well as the fact that I do not believe there is a breakaway gap on the Daily chart (Blue Oval). I am ready to take risk for profit on the short side with the right setup. We shall be finding out with each passing day in the service to subscribers as I lay out the trade plan, and I look forward to the opportunities and challenges ahead when swing trading.
The weekly timeframe candlestick analysis, and the COT reports in a host of contracts are more important this weekend than usual and I am eager to get to work tomorrow on the weekend update to subscribers.
Stay in tune with the ever changing and developing patterns of price and volume going forward with us.
(Click on chart to expand)
The last post on the S&P 500 is here: http://scottpluschau.blogspot.com/2013/02/s-500-still-climbing-stairway-to.html
Comments are welcome
Email: ScottPluschau@gmail.com
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